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Playoff roadmap: OIA Red West




Even with three weeks remaining in the OIA Red West regular season, no team has been eliminated from the playoff race. Out of seven Red West teams, only six make it into the postseason. While some teams have clinched playoff bids, the seeding order are far from being set in stone. Leading up to the second round of the playoffs, ScoringLive will have each team's "playoff roadmap," as they all vie for the crown. Today we survey the path to the playoffs for teams in the wild Red West.

IN THE HUNT

Aiea Na Ali'i

Despite Aiea's heartbreaking loss to Waipahu, their playoff hopes are still alive; albeit hanging on a thin thread. With a league record of 0-4, and only two more games remaining, this weekend's game against the Mules is a must win. Leilehua currently has a regular season record of 1-2, and is in the midst of a two game losing streak after starting the year 3-0. Should Na Ali'i win this week and finish the regular season with the same record, Na Ali'i will get the nod over Leilehua because they won the head-to-head matchup.

A win this week might keep Aiea's playoff hopes alive, but does not guarantee that they'll make it to the big dance. After this week, Aiea will only have one regular season meeting remaining while Leilehua has two more. Even if Aiea were to win their remaining two games, Leilehua can go 2-1 to close out the season and finish higher than Aiea in the standings.

If this were to happen, in order for Aiea to get into the playoffs they would need Waipahu to finish the season at 1-5, because Waipahu won the tiebreaker in the head-to-head matchup when the two teams met last week. To get in over Waipahu in this scenario, Aiea would need to finish at 2-4.

Everything for Aiea hinges on this week and a loss would eliminate them from the playoff contention for a second straight year. Hopefully some homecoming magic can keep Aiea's playoff hopes alive for one more week.

Leilehua Mules

The Mules had a first round bye in 2012, but find themselves fighting to get into the playoffs this year. After a 3-0 start to the season, the Mules have dropped their last two games in a row, giving them a 1-2 divisional record.  The road to the playoffs does not get any easier for the Mules as they close out the regular season with a three game road trip. However, a win at Aiea this week should all but knock Na Ali'i out of the hunt and lock up the six Red West postseason berths.

A Leilehua loss this week does not knock them out of the race, but it certainly does not bode well for their chances to sneak in. In the scenario that Leilehua loses this week, they will have to win out the rest of the way to solidify their spot in the playoffs. Following this week, the Mules will travel to Mililani and Waipahu while Aiea gets a bye week before closing out the season at Mililani.  

There are a lot of things that have to go Leilehua's way should they lose this week, but the best way to ensure their playoff spot is to take care of business this week.

Waipahu Marauders

Waipahu's late game heroics helped salvage their season, but a playoff berth is still not guaranteed. The tiebreaker over Aiea will mean nothing if Na Ali'i finishes with a better record than the Marauders. Fortunately for Waipahu, all they need to do is win one of their remaining three games to punch their ticket into the postseason.

If Aiea does win this week, it places the pressure on Leilehua to win a game making Waipahu's homecoming game against the Mules more intriguing. The two teams could be fighting in a mini-playoff game to get into the playoffs on the final game of the regular season.

The Marauders still have control over their own destiny and should be thinking about seeding as oppose to fighting for their lives. Although a first round bye is highly unlikely, Waipahu can still jockey for playoff position with visits to Waianae and Campbell in the next two weeks.

CLINCHED

Campbell Sabers

With a 2-1 Red West record and wins over Aiea and Waianae, Campbell has already clinched a playoff berth. Aiea currently sits at 0-4, and can only finish at best with a 2-4 record. Even if Campbell were to lose all their remaining games, they will get in over Aiea because they won the head-to-head matchup when the two teams met.

The Sabers are in a good spot with the current regular season record and are still a threat to come away with the Red West's top seed. With meetings with division leaders Mililani (3-0) and Kapolei (3-1) still on deck, Campbell is in control of what seed they finish with. Winning the remainder of their games will give them a 5-1 record, and in process the number one seed in the Red West.  

A pivotal game awaits Campbell this Saturday at Mililani with the winner claiming possession of first place in the West. A win this week for Campbell gives them the head-to-head tiebreaker over Mililani should they both finish the season with the same record. That advantage could be the difference between a first round bye or a wildcard meeting during fall break.  

Kapolei Hurricanes

After starting the regular season with a 35-0 loss to Mililani, the Hurricanes have rattled three straight wins on their way to a playoff bid. Those wins came against Waipahu, Aiea and Leilehua, the three teams that are currently at the bottom of the standings, meaning that Kapolei will get the nod in seeding over these teams should they finish with the same record.

The season opener loss to Mililani puts a damper for Kapolei's chances at the number one seed, but a potential bye week during wild card weekend gives Kapolei something to play for as the end of the regular season comes to a close. A bye this week gives the Hurricanes a chance to recuperate and pick up speed with visits to Waianae and Campbell remaining on the schedule. Winning those two games will almost guarantee the first round bye in the process.

Mililani Trojans

Red West leader Mililani is sitting pretty with their 3-0 league record. What makes that undefeated division record so impressive is all three wins came on the road. After a much deserved bye week taken last week, the Trojans look primed to finish with the number one seed with a three game home stand on the menu.

The toughest game left for the Trojans is Saturday's matchup against Campbell. Barring an unlikely end of the season collapse, the Trojans will be spectators rather than participants on wild card weekend.  

Waianae Seariders

Wins over Aiea and Leilehua has Waianae worry-free as to whether or not they'll make it into the playoffs. The Seariders hold tie-breakers over these two teams and will get one spot above them in the standings should they finish with the same record. The best Aiea can hope to finish is with a 2-4 record, so Waianae's current record of 2-2, will be enough.

The Seariders find themselves at the middle of standings and would need a lot of things to work in their favor if they want a first round bye. They host Waipahu (1-2) and Kapolei (3-1) to close out the season with the latter being a pivotal game in terms of seeding.

The best regular season record Waianae can finish with is 4-2, and with Mililani and Campbell holding the tiebreaker over Waianae in head-to-head matchups, chances for a first round bye is slim. However, the Seariders has their regular season bye week on the last week of the season so they'll be well rested for their first postseason game no matter what.



Reach Michael Lasquero at [email protected].




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