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Forecasting the first round of the OIA Red Tourney


After a long month of league play, it's "win or go home" time for a handful of teams tonight.

Eight teams will go at it in the Oahu Interscholastic Association Red Division Boys Basketball playoffs Wednesday night; only four will advance. A loss here will end seasons, some the last of their high school careers. A win tonight guarantees at least two more games for the teams chasing for a championship.

Here is a preview of the four games on tap:

Game one – (E5) Roosevelt at (W4) Waianae

Winner advances to face (E1) Farrington

It's been a wild ride for both of these teams throughout the season, with close losses affecting their seeding placement. Both teams come into the matchup with seven regular season wins so both teams are almost evenly matched.

The Rough Riders are no strangers to pressure, having played in six regular season games that were decided by three points or less. They picked up key wins over McKinley and Kahuku, but dropped games to Moanalua and Kailua. Their most marquee win is a 45-29 win over Kalaheo – the reigning Division I state champs – in the beginning of the season.

Roosevelt is a relatively young team, with Mick Colling the lone senior of the bunch. Colling averaged 9.6 points per game during the season, but did score a season-high 18 points against Farrington, the East's top-seeded team.

Leading the Rough Riders in scoring is 5-foot-10 junior Kevin Foster, averaging 10.8 points per game. On a guard-oriented team, Foster is one of the main players on the team who gathers defensive rebounds. Justin Furtado is another key contributor for the team, averaging 10 points per game. Furtado's main strength is at the free throw line, having converted on 73.1 percent of his attempts in the regular season.

Other key guys are point guard Jake Kawasaki and reserve sophomore big man Josh Alexandre. Kawasaki is a steady, true point guard that can set up the troops and Alexandre is brimming with potential, providing high activity around the basket. Roosevelt will need all the help they can get against Waianae's relatively big lineup.

After dropping their regular season opener against Radford, the Seariders six straight wins before dropping back-to-back games to Kapolei and Mililani. They got back into the win column in the regular season finale against Campbell, the West's top-seeded team, giving them momentum heading into the postseason.

Waianae's Bronson Brown-Kaopua will be the one doing the most damage against the Rough Riders' lineup. The 6-foot-3, senior center is averaging a blistering 13.9 points per game, tying two other scorers for fifth best in the OIA Red Division. Brown-Kaopua thrives in the big games, having scored a season-high 26 points against Mililani in a double overtime loss.

Other key contributors for the Seariders are Austin Thomas and Makana Piilani, averaging nine and 8.2 points per game respectively.

This game will be a classic battle between contrasting styles. Waianae employs more of a traditional offensive game plan while Roosevelt is more spread oriented. A big factor of the game will be the foul situation. Waianae will want to establish their post game early to set the tone. This could lead to some early foul trouble for the Rough Riders' big men who have to deal with Brown-Kaopua. On the other hand, Roosevelt should look to attack the basket to get Waianae's big men in foul trouble.

The Seariders have a more simple approach to victory. They'll look to slow the game down to conserve their legs and possibly maintain a lead. Roosevelt will need to have great ball movement to generate driving lanes and open shots against Waianae's lineup.

If I were to choose a winner in this game, I'd probably pick the Rough Riders to advance. I think their battles in the stronger OIA Eastern Division has provided this young team with the experience needed to come away with a road victory in the playoffs.

Game two – (W6) Kapolei at (E3) Moanalua

Winner advances to face (W2) Mililani

The game over in Salt Lake will provide two teams from the opposite side of the spectrum. Moanalua just barely missed out on a first round while Kapolei was a couple of losses away from missing out on the postseason completely.

Things have changed a lot for the Hurricanes since the previous year. The team that went undefeated last season has struggled to find any consistency in 2014. In spite of this, they still have the same coach in Gary Ellison so any team not prepared for these Hurricanes in the playoffs might be in for a little surprise.

One thing that immediately stands out about this year's Kapolei team is their size. Eight of their 14 listed players are all over six feet tall, with big Micah Kapoi anchoring the front line down low. Kapoi, a Wisconsin football commit, stands tall at 6-foot-5, and will provide rebounding and a strong presence in the paint.

Leading the Hurricanes in scoring is senior guard Chance Kamaka with 13.7 points per game. Despite missing the first three games of the season, Kamaka has come on strong lately, posting 18 points in three straight games to end the regular season.

Another key guys on the team are Koa Alvarado, Matthew Henderson and Benjahmin Toomalatai. Together the trio is averaging 20.5 points per game in ten regular season games.

Despite missing out on a first round bye, Moanalua is easily one of top teams in the OIA. A loss against Kalaheo in their regular season opener is the big difference between the two and the three seed. Na Menehune is also coming off a loss to Kailua on senior night so they'll be looking to get rid of that spoiled taste with a win tonight.

Moanalua is one of the few teams in the state without any glaring weaknesses. The senior-studded unit has made Byron Mello's first year coaching the program a success up to this point.

Na Menehune are also a team that has a bonafide “big three” amongst their ranks. Jamaal Willis is one of the premiere scoring guards around the state, Antoine Hines is a jack-of-all-trades and Aaron Stuart is a strong presence around the basket. Collectively the three players are averaging 39.4 points per game, a huge chunk of the team's total 56 points per game.

Senior guards Elo Badua and Aljohn Bumanglag splits time handling the point guard duties. When one gets into foul trouble, the other can come into the game and pick up where the other left off. There is relatively no drop off or difference between the two guards.

The lone junior amongst the starters is 6-foot-1 Karson Cruz. With his volleyball hops, Cruz provides the team with solid rebounding. He could very much be the x-factor in Na Menehune's postseason dreams.

Moanalua should win this game handily making this game one of the easiest to pick. Kapolei has a strong front line but Na Menehune are just too deep and talented overall.

Game three – (E6) Kahuku at (W3) Radford

Winner advances to face (E2) Kalaheo

Out of the four games on the slate tonight, I predict this one will be the most exciting. A handful of fast break buckets, blocked shots, strong moves, and turnovers will be handed out to those who venture out to view this game.

Kahuku has been a mixed bag for much of the season before closing out the past two weeks strong. Their most noteworthy win is against Kalaheo, which put a damper on the Mustangs' chances at the East's top seed. Despite losing to Farrington by 21 points last Saturday, the Red Raiders gave the Governors all they can handle in the first half.

Leading the way for Kahuku is sophomore big man Hirkley Latu who averages 13.9 points per game. He brings toughness in the paint and will surprise opponents who aren't ready for his physicality. If full stats are taken for every game, Latu is a threat to register a double-double each and every night.

Believe it or not but a trio of freshman are actually solid contributors for this Red Raider team. Samuta Avea is one of the more known players because he shows up on the stat sheet often, having averaged 11.4 points during the regular season. Freshman guard Keanu Akina is also an underrated scorer for Kahuku, doing most of his damage from outside the arc. Akina's 23 made 3-pointers is tied for second most around the state. Rounding out the freshman trio is Kesi Ah Hoy, who dazzles all those in attendance with his no-look rocket passes.

Radford is a team who has an intriguing season as well. The Rams picked up solid wins over Mililani and Waianae, but dropped head-scratchers to Leilehua and Kapolei. Radford is one of those teams that are consistent and being inconsistent; they can look like one of the top teams in the league at times, but often doesn't play up to their abilities.

One reassuring thing about the Rams is that they don't have any one player who averaged in double figures throughout the season. Senior guard Derrick McLamore is the closest at 9.9 points per game. This shows that this Radford team doesn't have to rely on one or a few players to carry the team. If a particular player has an off night, another player can come in and pick up the slack.

Some of the newcomers on the team are Tobias Powell and Absolom Henry. Powell is a smart decision maker coming over Maryknoll and Henry is a tall leaper who is a strong defensive player around the basket.

This game should come down to the wire with both teams trading blows left and right. I give the slight edge to Radford who will be playing at home after closing out the regular season with back-to-back games. The Rams haven't played any of the stronger West teams since playing top-seeded Campbell so there might be a little rust factor involved that could affect the game's result.

Game four – (W5) Leilehua at (E4) Kailua

Winner advances to face (W1) Campbell

The game over on the windward side will feature two teams that have bounced back from early regular season losses. This game might not be as frantic as the game at Radford's Jim Alegre gymnasium, but it'll see it's fair share of big moments.

The Mules are one of the few teams that I have not extensively watch to get a good read on them. From what I seen in the early preseason tournaments, there are a team that has some solid guys in the post. Their most high profile win was against Radford, a team that also has a strong presence in the paint.

Sophomore guard Joseph Gouty, who averages 10.9 points per game during the regular season, is the one guy to watch for against Kailua. His performance's during the season is a roller coaster ride that has not stabilized from week to week. His highest performance was a 25-point showing against Aiea, but his lowest was a two-point outing against Campbell.

Other key guys that I've noticed around the basket is forward Bryan Mason and center Torenzo Vereen. These are some of the few seniors on the team so look for them to come up big with their high school careers on the line.

Fresh from a Division II state title appearance, the Surfriders have settled in nicely in the OIA Red East Division. Free throws was a common issue for this Kailua team in the preseason, but it appears they have corrected their woes at the line in their latest game against Moanalua.

Kailua is relatively a balanced team with any player capable of coming up big in key moments. If you were to guess who the leader is on this team, the safest choice is post Matthew Bishop. The 6-foot senior uses his wide receiver skills to gather many offensive rebounds for the Surfriders. Bishop hasn't scored in double figures in the last three games so he could be due for a very big game against the visiting Mules.

William Kailimai's return from paternity leave has also provided an impact on this surging Kailua team. He doesn't always score much, but he provides intensity and energy that will boost the morale of his fellow teammates whenever he makes a big play.

I'd pick the Surfriders to come away with a win over Leilehua at home. Kailua has some of the best home crowds that I've seen so far during the season. Home court advantage should be the edge needed to lift the Surfriders into the quarterfinals.



Reach Michael Lasquero at [email protected].




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