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Crystal ball-Ing: Picking winners for the OIA D1 quarters




Though not by popular demand necessarily, Crystal ball-Ing is baaaaaaack.

In this week's installment, I take my best shot at picking the winners for each of the four OIA quarterfinal games, and provide some reasoning as to why.

MOANALUA at MILILANI

At least from an offensive standpoint, Moanalua has the best collection of weapons to potentially keep up with the explosive Mililani attack. Na Menehune rank third in total offense, bested only by Punahou and the aformentioned Trojans, and the kids from Salt Lake have scored no less than 21 points in every game this season. What's more, Moanalua's 36 points scored against Mililani were the most given up by the Trojans to a Hawaii opponent.

The problem lies in Na Menehune's struggles in stopping the other team from putting up points themselves. Moanalua has allowed an average of 31.4 points per game, and gave up a season-high 60 points to the Trojans in a loss on Oct. 2. Sure, the Trojans will be without QB McKenzie Milton for the foreseeable future, but backup signal caller Kaysen Higa has fared admirably (477 pass yd, seven touchdowns, inteception), and RB Vavae Malepeai is more than capable of shouldering a larger role, as he has shown over the last two games (44 carries, 393 yards, seven touchdowns).

Expect a high-scoring affair in central Oahu, but should ultimately be a fairly comfortable victory for the defending state champions.

Prediction: Mililani 52 - Moanalua 27

KAILUA at WAIANAE

In what is probably the most intriguing of the four quarterfinals, the Surfriders certainly look primed for a deep playoff run coming off of a dominating 57-6 win over Waipahu. Kailua recorded four sacks and held the Marauders to just 101 yards of offense in the win, and had its way offensively as well, racking up a season-high 57 points, with 50 of them coming before halftime. QB Noah Auld was an efficient 10-of-17 for 242 yards and 4 scores, two of them on long pass plays to Koolau Gaspar.

I think its easy to think of Waianae, coming off of a 30-0 loss to Kahuku, as the underdog in this contest, but I think two things factor in. One, it was the Kahuku defense that held down a potent Waianae rushing attack that had reeled off an average of 67.7 points prior to the blanking. Second, as great as the Kailua defense has been against the run this year (just 80.7 yards per contest), it really hasn't seen the likes of the ground game the Seariders possess.

The Surfriders' emergence from a winless season a year ago has been more than impressive, but I wonder how they will fare against the power running style of the Seariders, one that isn't quite the norm in the much more pass-happy Blue. Still, expect this one to come down to the wire.

Prediction: Waianae 34 - Kailua 30

CAMPBELL vs. FARRINGTON at Roosevelt

The Sabers' win over the Cougars was, at least to me, somewhat of a surprise. Noah Esprecion had another big game (9 rec, 134 yards, touchdown) as a go-to target for Kawika Ulufale, but the difference maker, at least glancing at the stats alone, was the re-emergence of RB Terrell Johnson. His 20 carries for 100 yards was his best performance since going for 19 and 90 against Castle on Aug. 15, and his presence going forward could be a real boon for the Sabers offense.

The question begs then, have the Sabers turned the corner of sorts? Prior to the playoff win against Kaiser, Campbell's two losses to Moanalua and Farrington were both one-score games that could very well have gone the other way but didn't. Campbell has certainly been somewhat of a disappointment this season, but better late than never I suppose.

As for the Govs, they will ultiimately go as far as dual-threat Challen Faamatau will take them. Just his usage alone over the last four weeks has been nothing short of astronomical (102 rushes, 10 receptions) and that doesn't project to change at all come playoff time. Regardless, QB Bishop Rapoza and the Govs passing attack needs to get back on track in order to keep defenses honest. Since posting solid numbers against Moanalua (316 yards, three touchdowns, interception) and Aiea (220 yards, three touchdowns) in weeks 4 and 5, Rapoza has averaged just 93 yards in four contests with just as many interceptions (three) as touchdowns.

The Governors will take the field against the Sabers for the second time in three weeks, and while I'm not quite ready to pencil in Farrington to the semifinals just yet, I would find it hard not to believe that the Govs take care of business in round two against the Sabers.

Prediction: Farrington 28 - Campbell 13

KAPOLEI at KAHUKU

There is reason for optimism in second city, as Kapolei has reeled off five straight wins since a 67-21 loss to Mililani on Aug. 29, and has allowed just 19 points in the last 16 quarters while lighting up the scoreboard for 96 of its own. Add to that the fact that the Hurricanes have already faced the Red Raiders earlier this year, and held them to a season-low 27 points in that contest to boot, and I think its fair to think of Kapolei as perhaps the most likely in the state capable of taking down Kahuku not named Mililani, Punahou or Saint Louis.

On offense, Kahuku QB Kesi Ah Hoy had a breakout game of sorts against Waianae, rushing for 152 yards on 22 carries and three touchdowns, but the big story all season has been a dominating defense, allowing just 90 yards of total offense and 2.8 points per contest. Did I mention that the Red Raiders defense and special teams have accounted for 119 points, more than 30 percent of their season total?

I am not predicting an upset by any stretch, but the Hurricanes certainly have more than just a fighting chance. It will likely take some serious aerial fireworks from Taulia Tagovailoa and the Kapolei receiving corps to pull out the victory, and that is certainly no secret to Kahuku either.

Prediction: Kahuku 31 - Kapolei 12



Reach Brien Ing at [email protected].




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