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Picking upsets in round two anything but scientific


With one round of predicitions in the books, the tournament's quarterfinals are where things can really get interesting, particularly for those teams with already a game under their belts.

Playing the sheer numbers game, the seeded teams can (and usually will) send their number one pitcher to the mound, enjoying at least a theoretical advantage over their unseeded counterparts. Then again, battling through the first round also shakes off the "rust" accumulated by a week or sometimes more of playing at much less than game speed, a benefit to those teams not on bye.

Here are some PREDICTIONS for the quarters, with the winners I picked for round one as the opponents.

#1 BALDWIN vs. WAIPAHU

The top-seeded Bears have a decided home field advantage as well as the aforementioned luxury of being able to hand the ball to the pitcher of their choosing. That starter looks to be Daulton Cabacungan, who helped pitch the Bears to the league title just 5 days ago.

Cabacungan will likely be opposite Tyler Enos, who pitched 5 2/3 innings, allowing 2 runs on 3 hits with 6 strikeouts in the Marauders' 6-5 loss to Pearl City in the OIA fifth place game.

Waipahu has only broken the 5-run barrier twice this year and reached the double-digit hit plateau just once.

Prediction: Baldwin takes care of business in the quarterfinals in a low(er)-scoring affair over Waipahu. BALDWIN

#4 HILO vs. IOLANI

The Vikings took down Waiakea in every meeting during the BIIF season and look primed for another run deep into the Division I tourney. Standing in the way is battle-tested Iolani, a squad that is markedly improved over the one that lost five games in a row during a stretch in their ILH campaign.

Kian Kurokawa projects to be the starter in the quarterfinals, but Hilo has a bevy of arms they can turn to, including Jordan Tagawa and most recently Jalen Carvalho, who came into pitch 4 1/3 innings of relief in the Vikings win in the BIIF championship game.

Who takes the mound for Iolani is anyone's guess, but if Javin Nohara pitches on Wednesday, I would pencil Austin Jim On in as the starter in the quarters. The sophomore isn't going to overpower anybody in the batter's box, but throws strikes and has good location.

Prediction: Iolani's experience playing in the toughest league in the state pays dividends against Hilo in another close one. IOLANI

#2 MID-PACIFIC vs. WAIAKEA

ILH champion Mid-Pacific is as well-rounded a ball club as they come, great defense and pitching combined with a lineup of both speed and power.

Projected starter Trey Saito has been a silent assassin of sorts for the Owls, compiling an impressive 5-0 record with a scant 0.26 ERA. He's allowed only 1 run in over 27 innings pitched. At the plate, the speedy Isiah Kiner-Falefa is dangerous at leadoff, and sets the table for a potent 3-4 punch in Marcus Doi and Daniel Fentriss.

Waiakea freshman Caleb Freitas-Fields will likely get the call in the quarters, and will need to pitch a smart game against a patient Owls' order.

Prediction: Mid-Pacific's blend of pitching, defense and timely hitting too much for defending state champ Waiakea. MID-PACIFIC

#3 CAMPBELL vs. PEARL CITY

Familiar OIA West foes will take to the field in the 4:30 p.m. quarterfinal. Campbell owns a 2-0 advantage this season, a 3-2 win at home on March 16, and a 5-0 shutout on the road on April 10.

The Sabers have two formidable pitchers they can turn to against Pearl City, senior hurler Jasten Smeigh or sophomore sensation Ian Kahaloa. Offensively, Campbell hasn't put up wild numbers, but then again, they haven't had to.

A thirteen-spot put up on Mililani in the OIA Red title game was the highest output of the year by Campbell. Much of that offense was generated via the legs of Alii Pedrina, a transfer from Kamehameha with game-changing speed on the base paths.

Pearl City will likely go with Sean Milan, who pitched 10 innings in a marathon of a game against Kailua, allowing just one run and striking out 10. The Chargers will need to replicate the 13 hit effort they put forth at Campbell earlier this year to have a legitimate shot.

Prediction: Campbell pitching overwhelms Pearl City bats in this one. CAMPBELL

Tomorrow, semifinal and final predictions... gulp.



Reach Brien Ing at [email protected].




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